数据健康度
每次生成自动执行，无需单独运行 preflight · 3/5 个门禁通过
app_registryFAIL · 请查看 JSON preflight evidence
semantic_manifestPASS · Manifest 覆盖且质量健康
max_revenuePASS · 已通过
max_user_revenuePASS · 已通过
marketing_costFAIL · 缺失 Cost 单元格：2026-09-24:US, 2026-09-25:US, 2026-09-26:US, 2026-09-27:US, 2026-09-28:US
口径提示黄色标签为按 AppsFlyer 可信归因玩家安装占比分摊的国家估算 Cost，不代表 AppsFlyer 返回了真实国家消耗。缺失值显示为“—”，永不补 0。人均广告频次 = 广告展示 ÷ DAU；跨日汇总使用广告展示 ÷ 活跃人日。
模块质量门禁
Observation 模式仅用于质量观察；provisional 不会被提升为 healthy，模块状态按各自 exact snapshot 与质量维度独立计算。
ACQUISITIONPARTIAL · acquisition_or_cost_gate_unavailable
CONTINUEPARTIAL · continue_metrics_require_mature_24h_observation
CORE_ACTIVITYREADY · module_gates_pass
MAX_REVENUEREADY · exact_max_snapshots_and_coverage_pass
PICTURE_FUNNELPARTIAL · global_quality_provisional
PIDPARTIAL · global_quality_provisional
PLAYER_BEHAVIORPARTIAL · global_quality_provisional
PLAYER_PROFILEPARTIAL · global_quality_provisional
RETENTIONPARTIAL · global_quality_provisional
ROIPARTIAL · roi_dependency_gate_incomplete
SESSIONPARTIAL · session root is complete for the pinned scope, but quality remains provisional (unresolved_late_events=22, clock_suspects=1)
Player Profile 字段级质量
字段独立门禁；单个异常不会阻断其它可验证字段。
| 字段 | 状态 | 原因 | 来源数据集 | 精确快照 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| app_version | PARTIAL | version filter is available; clock quality remains provisional | analytics.fact_events_clean | 4842553769205816138 |
| avg_session_duration | PARTIAL | session root is complete for the pinned scope, but quality remains provisional (unresolved_late_events=22, clock_suspects=1) | analytics.fact_player_sessions | 754955823164190945 |
| bedtime | BLOCKED | valid client clock evidence is not available | analytics.fact_player_sessions | 754955823164190945 |
| country | READY | identity_snapshot_gate | analytics.fact_acquisition_player | 1805415683818506571 |
| daypart | BLOCKED | valid client clock evidence is not available | analytics.fact_player_sessions | 754955823164190945 |
| device | NOT_AVAILABLE | device field is not present in the observation contract | analytics.dim_player_identity_snapshots | 7415895653083764338 |
| evening | BLOCKED | valid client clock evidence is not available | analytics.fact_player_sessions | 754955823164190945 |
| fragmented_time | BLOCKED | valid client clock evidence is not available | analytics.fact_player_sessions | 754955823164190945 |
| full_history_persona | BLOCKED | full history completeness is not proven | analytics.fact_events_clean | 4842553769205816138 |
| morning | BLOCKED | valid client clock evidence is not available | analytics.fact_player_sessions | 754955823164190945 |
| picture_click_count | READY | picture fact snapshot gate | analytics.fact_picture_attempt_durations | 4114903922021148050 |
| picture_complete_count | READY | picture fact snapshot gate | analytics.fact_picture_attempt_durations | 4114903922021148050 |
| picture_impression_count | READY | picture fact snapshot gate | analytics.fact_picture_attempt_durations | 4114903922021148050 |
| picture_start_count | READY | picture fact snapshot gate | analytics.fact_picture_attempt_durations | 4114903922021148050 |
| pictures_per_session | PARTIAL | session-linked denominator is partial | analytics.fact_picture_attempt_durations | 4114903922021148050 |
| platform | READY | identity_snapshot_gate | analytics.fact_acquisition_player | 1805415683818506571 |
| player_id | READY | identity_snapshot_gate | analytics.fact_acquisition_player | 1805415683818506571 |
| revenue_ltv | READY | MAX exact snapshot gate; LTV maturity is bounded | analytics.fact_max_revenue_player_daily | 7986628803664169733 |
| session_count | PARTIAL | session root is complete for the pinned scope, but quality remains provisional (unresolved_late_events=22, clock_suspects=1) | analytics.fact_player_sessions | 754955823164190945 |
| total_active_duration | READY | activity fact snapshot gate | analytics.agg_player_daily_activity | 1203664959512663115 |
| total_max_revenue | READY | MAX exact snapshot gate | analytics.fact_max_revenue_player_daily | 7986628803664169733 |
Session Root Coverage / Data Quality
缺失质量维度显示 NOT_AVAILABLE，不把缺失当作 0。
SESSION_ROOT_COVERAGE100.0%
BUSINESS_SESSION_COUNT146
WITH_SESSION_START146
SESSION_WITHOUT_START0
UNRESOLVED_LATE_EVENTS22
CLOCK_SUSPECT_COUNT1
| Issue | Status | Reason | Affected modules |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER_HISTORY_BOUNDARY | PARTIAL | 22 unresolved late events remain unaccepted | SESSION, PLAYER_BEHAVIOR, RETENTION, PLAYER_PROFILE |
| CLIENT_CLOCK_BAD | BLOCKED | 1 client clock suspect event(s) | SESSION, RETENTION, PLAYER_PROFILE |
指标目录与可用性
每个指标绑定字段来源、查询口径和质量门禁；缺失快照显示 NOT_AVAILABLE/NOT_YET_PUBLISHED，绝不补零。
| 指标 | 状态 | 字段来源 | Semantic/Query 来源 | 口径 | 质量门禁 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAU | SUPPORTED | analytics.agg_player_daily_activity | player_daily semantic snapshot | distinct active players per day | semantic_manifest |
| new_users | SUPPORTED | analytics.agg_player_daily_activity | player_daily semantic snapshot | new players in the selected day | semantic_manifest |
| retention | SUPPORTED_WHEN_COHORT_MATURE | analytics.agg_player_daily_activity | bounded cohort retention SQL | retained players / eligible cohort | semantic_manifest + maturity |
| sessions_and_active_duration | SUPPORTED | analytics.fact_player_sessions | session semantic snapshot | session count and authoritative activity duration | semantic_manifest |
| picture_funnel_and_pid | SUPPORTED | analytics.fact_picture_attempt_durations | bounded picture/PID semantic SQL | impression → start → progress → complete | semantic_manifest |
| max_revenue | SUPPORTED | analytics.fact_max_revenue | exact MAX aggregate snapshot | final MAX revenue by day/country | max_revenue coverage gate |
| max_player_revenue | SUPPORTED | analytics.fact_max_revenue_player_daily | exact MAX user snapshot | MAX revenue by player/day | max_user_revenue coverage gate |
| arpdau_arpu | SUPPORTED | MAX revenue + player daily semantic | bounded revenue / active-player SQL | revenue divided by active users | revenue and semantic gates |
| behavior_by_revenue | SUPPORTED | MAX player revenue + behavior facts | bounded player join | behavior segments crossed with player revenue | both exact snapshots |
| Next Picture Start Rate | PARTIAL | daily_picture_transition | next_picture_start_rate | different-pid attempt within 24h after mature terminal | mature_only=true; observation_window_hours=24; derived transition |
| Effective Continue Rate | PARTIAL | daily_picture_transition | effective_continue_rate | next picture or home/new-session reentry within 24h | mature_only=true; unknown restart remains unknown_reentry |
| Complete Continue Rate | PARTIAL | daily_picture_transition | complete_continue_rate | continued mature complete terminals / mature complete terminals | mature_only=true; observation_window_hours=24 |
| Incomplete Exit Continue Rate | PARTIAL | daily_picture_transition | incomplete_exit_continue_rate | continued mature exits without authoritative complete | mature_only=true; complete takes precedence over exit |
| Same Picture Resume | PARTIAL | daily_picture_transition | same_picture_resume | replay_picture among mature terminal attempts | derived transition; not an app-restart fact |
| continuation_rate | NOT_AVAILABLE | daily_picture_transition | effective_continue_rate | legacy compatibility alias for effective continuation | legacy alias; use explicit continue metrics |
| Return Home Rate | PARTIAL | daily_picture_transition + home_view | return_home_rate | terminal followed by ordered home_view within 24h | DERIVED; no authoritative terminal-to-home relation id |
| data_quality | SUPPORTED | transform_run_manifests | completed manifest metadata | run, snapshot, coverage and quality status | completed manifest required |
一、整体与国家汇总
累计指标、安装双口径、活跃人日与广告效率
| 国家 | 消耗 | 广告收入 | 收入−消耗 | ROAS | 报告安装 | 归因安装 | 报告 CPI | 归因 CPI | 活跃人日 | Sessions | 展示 | eCPM | ARPDAU | 人均广告频次 | 财务覆盖 | 活跃覆盖 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | $176.34 | $152.68 | $-23.66 | 86.6% | 32 | 37 | $5.51 | $4.77 | 81 | 142 | 42,980 | $3.55 | $1.88 | 530.62 | PARTIAL | COMPLETE |
| US | $176.34 | $152.68 | $-23.66 | 86.6% | 32 | 37 | $5.51 | $4.77 | 81 | 142 | 42,980 | $3.55 | $1.88 | 530.62 | PARTIAL | COMPLETE |
二、每日汇总：跨所选国家
国家维度汇总后按日观察放量、收入与效率变化
| 日期 | 消耗 | 广告收入 | 收入−消耗 | ROAS | 报告安装 | 归因安装 | 报告 CPI | 归因 CPI | 活跃人日 | Sessions | 展示 | eCPM | ARPDAU | 人均广告频次 | 财务覆盖 | 活跃覆盖 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $124.78 | $39.53 | $-85.25 | 31.7% | 17 | 18 | $7.34 | $6.93 | 39 | 79 | 6,397 | $6.18 | $1.01 | 164.03 | COMPLETE | COMPLETE |
| 2026-09-23 | $51.57 | $28.32 | $-23.24 | 54.9% | 15 | 15 | $3.44 | $3.44 | 19 | 28 | 6,008 | $4.71 | $1.49 | 316.21 | COMPLETE | COMPLETE |
| 2026-09-24 | — | $28.64 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 7 | 11 | 6,681 | $4.29 | $4.09 | 954.43 | PARTIAL | COMPLETE |
| 2026-09-25 | — | $14.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 7 | 5,462 | $2.72 | $4.96 | 1,820.67 | PARTIAL | COMPLETE |
| 2026-09-26 | — | $11.48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 6 | 6,632 | $1.73 | $2.87 | 1,658.00 | PARTIAL | COMPLETE |
| 2026-09-27 | — | $18.60 | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | 6 | 8 | 7,601 | $2.45 | $3.10 | 1,266.83 | PARTIAL | COMPLETE |
| 2026-09-28 | — | $11.23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 4,199 | $2.67 | $3.74 | 1,399.67 | PARTIAL | COMPLETE |
三、各国家每日经营数据
ROAS = MAX 广告收入 ÷ Cost；收入减消耗不是净利润
| 日期 | 国家 | 消耗 | Cost 口径 | 广告收入 | 收入−消耗 | ROAS | 报告安装 | Cost分摊安装 | 归因安装 | Organic安装 | 报告 CPI | DAU | Sessions | 展示 | eCPM | ARPDAU | 人均广告频次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | US | $124.78 | 归因安装分摊 | $39.53 | $-85.25 | 0.32× | 17 | 17 | 18 | 1 | $7.34 | 39 | 79 | 6,397 | $6.18 | $1.01 | 164.03 |
| 2026-09-23 | US | $51.57 | 归因安装分摊 | $28.32 | $-23.24 | 0.55× | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0 | $3.44 | 19 | 28 | 6,008 | $4.71 | $1.49 | 316.21 |
| 2026-09-24 | US | — | — | $28.64 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0 | — | 7 | 11 | 6,681 | $4.29 | $4.09 | 954.43 |
| 2026-09-25 | US | — | — | $14.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 7 | 5,462 | $2.72 | $4.96 | 1,820.67 |
| 2026-09-26 | US | — | — | $11.48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 6 | 6,632 | $1.73 | $2.87 | 1,658.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | US | — | — | $18.60 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 6 | 8 | 7,601 | $2.45 | $3.10 | 1,266.83 |
| 2026-09-28 | US | — | — | $11.23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 4,199 | $2.67 | $3.74 | 1,399.67 |
四、分渠道消耗与安装
收入没有可靠渠道归属时，不按消耗比例硬拆收入
| 渠道 | 消耗 | 消耗占比 | 报告安装 | 归因安装 | Organic 安装 | 报告 CPI | 归因 CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| particlemedia_int | $176.34 | 100.0% | 32 | 34 | 0 | $5.51 | $5.19 |
| 国家 | 渠道 | 消耗 | 消耗占比 | 报告安装 | 归因安装 | Organic 安装 | 报告 CPI | 归因 CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Organic | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| US | particlemedia_int | $176.34 | 100.0% | 32 | 34 | 0 | $5.51 | $5.19 |
| 日期 | 渠道 | 消耗 | 消耗占比 | 报告安装 | 归因安装 | Organic 安装 | 报告 CPI | 归因 CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Organic | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | particlemedia_int | $124.78 | 100.0% | 17 | 17 | 0 | $7.34 | $7.34 |
| 2026-09-23 | particlemedia_int | $51.57 | 100.0% | 15 | 15 | 0 | $3.44 | $3.44 |
| 2026-09-24 | particlemedia_int | $0.00 | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | Organic | $0.00 | — | 0 | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | particlemedia_int | $0.00 | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | — |
五、成熟度 Cohort 广告收入 ROAS
每个 Dn 只纳入收入窗口完整的 Cohort；不同 Dn 样本集合可能不同
| 国家 | Cohort 数 | D0 | D1 | D2 | D3 | D7 | D14 | D18 | D30 | D60 | D90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 4 | 11.3% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| US | 4 | 11.3% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 日期 | 国家 | 归因安装 | 消耗 | D0 | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D10 | D14 | D18 | D30 | D60 | D90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | US | 18 | $124.78 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | US | 15 | $51.57 | 30.6% | 46.8% | 46.8% | 46.8% | 46.8% | 48.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | US | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | US | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
六、最近两个财务完整日对照
财务完整不等于活跃数据完整；用于观察变化，不作为因果结论
| 日期 | 消耗 | 收入 | 收入−消耗 | ROAS | DAU 合计 | 展示 | eCPM | ARPDAU | 人均广告频次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $124.78 | $39.53 | $-85.25 | 31.7% | 39 | 6,397 | $6.18 | $1.01 | 164.03 |
| 2026-09-23 | $51.57 | $28.32 | $-23.24 | 54.9% | 19 | 6,008 | $4.71 | $1.49 | 316.21 |
广告类型收入
MAX 汇总事实中的广告格式
| 广告类型 | 收入 | 展示 | eCPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| BANNER | $24.69 | 41,377 | $0.60 |
| INTER | $81.89 | 1,259 | $65.04 |
| REWARD | $46.10 | 344 | $134.01 |
阶段对比
按所选自然日切分前后半段；多国家时先按日汇总，避免拆分同一天
| 阶段 | 开始 | 结束 | 消耗 | 收入 | 收入−消耗 | ROAS | DAU 合计 | 展示 | eCPM | ARPDAU | 人均广告频次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| first_half | 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-24 | $176.34 | $96.50 | $-79.85 | 54.7% | 65 | 19,086 | $5.06 | $1.48 | 293.63 |
| second_half | 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-28 | — | $56.19 | — | — | 16 | 23,894 | $2.35 | $3.51 | 1,493.38 |
七、成熟留存
真实 0% 保留为 0；未成熟或窗口外节点显示“—”
| 国家 | Cohort 数 | D1 | D2 | D3 | D7 | D14 | D30 | D60 | D90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 4 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US | 4 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 日期 | 国家 | 安装 | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D10 | D14 | D18 | D30 | D60 | D90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | US | 18 | 0.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | US | 15 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | US | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | US | 3 | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
八、分析结论与判断依据
确定性规则生成；不替代实验验证和业务审批
| 维度 | 判断 | 结论 | 实测依据 | 限制 | 建议动作 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| overall | BELOW_BREAKEVEN | selected-country calendar revenue does not cover spend | ROAS=86.58% | calendar revenue includes existing users and is not cohort profitability | verify mature cohort ROAS before changing budget |
| US | BELOW_BREAKEVEN | country calendar revenue does not cover spend | ROAS=86.58% | allocated Cost is estimated when AppsFlyer omits country | review country cohort maturity and retention |
Production Observation 发布证据
RUN_ID: 1e07fef5-baae-4c5d-aa0d-d07a852df3f9 · MANIFEST_ID: 1e07fef5-baae-4c5d-aa0d-d07a852df3f9
GLOBAL_QUALITY_STATUS: provisional · FORMAL_BUSINESS_DECISION: NOT_READY
SESSION_CONTEXT_FIX_VERIFIED: NO · CLIENT_FIX_RELEASED: NO
正在核对静态 JSON 与精确快照…